Guideline for Income Estimator

Estimate a user's income tier using behavioral signals

Introduction

The Income Estimator predicts the likelihood that a user belongs to a higher income segment based on behavioral data.

Unlike traditional income verification, this model does not predict an individual's exact monthly income. Instead, it estimates the probability that a user belongs to a higher income group and maps that prediction into predefined income tiers.

The API returns:

  • probability — the model's prediction score (recommended for decisioning)
  • tier — simplified income category
  • confidence — model certainty
  • incomeRange — reference range associated with the predicted tier

Understanding the Outputs

  1. Probability (Primary Output)

    The probability field is the primary output of the model and contains the most predictive information.
    It represents the likelihood that the user belongs to the High-income segment.

    Example:

    ProbabilityInterpretation
    0.95Very strong High-income signal
    0.82Strong High-income signal
    0.64Moderate High-income signal
    0.48Near decision boundary
    0.18Strong Non-High-income signal
    Two users may receive the same income tier while having different probabilities.

    Example:

    UserProbabilityTier
    User A0.91High
    User B0.63High
    Although both users are classified as High, User A has a substantially stronger model signal.
    • Recommendation: Use probability as your primary decisioning signal.
  2. Tier

    The tier provides a simplified categorization of the model output.

    Current tiers include:

    TierMonthly Income Reference
    Low≤ 17,250
    Middle17,251 – 29,250
    High≥ 29,250
    The tier is intended for:
    • Customer segmentation
    • User interface display
    • Reporting
    • Simple business rules
      The tier should not be interpreted as an exact estimate of a customer's monthly income.
  3. Income Range

    The incomeRange object represents the predefined range associated with the predicted tier.

    For example:

    {
        "monthlyIncomeMin":17251,
        "monthlyIncomeMax":29250
    }

    This range is not personalized.

    Every user classified into the same tier receives the same range.

    The values represent the tier boundaries rather than an estimated income for the individual customer.

  4. Confidence

    The confidence field measures how far the prediction is from the model's internal decision boundary.
    It does not indicate the likelihood that a customer belongs to a particular income tier.

    For example:

    ProbabilityConfidence
    0.90High
    0.52Low
    0.10High
    This may appear counterintuitive because confidence measures model certainty, not income likelihood.

    For example:

    • Probability = 0.10 means the model believes the customer is unlikely to be a High-income user.
    • Confidence = High means the model is very certain about that prediction.

Recommended Usage

Primary Decision Signal

Use probability for automated decisioning.

Example:

ProbabilitySuggested Action
≥0.85Low-risk customer
0.70–0.85Standard approval
0.50–0.70Additional verification
<0.50Higher-risk segment

Thresholds should be calibrated based on your organization's risk appetite and historical performance.

Secondary Decision Signal

Use tier for:

  • Customer segmentation
  • Portfolio reporting

Avoid

The Income Estimator should not be used as:

  • An exact income prediction
  • A substitute for verified income documentation
  • The sole approval criterion for lending decisions


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